Global changes in the earth's climate causes patterns of forecasts. On the problems and consequences of global climate change on Earth. Effective ways to solve these problems. Extreme weather

07.04.2020

Changing of the climate

Changing of the climate- fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Changes in both mean values of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology. Climate change is caused by dynamic processes on the Earth, external influences, such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, according to one version, with recently, human activity. AT recent times the term "climate change" is commonly used (especially in the context of environmental policy) to refer to changes in the current climate (see global warming).

The problem in theory and history

8,000 thousand years ago, agricultural activity began in a narrow belt: from the Nile Valley through the Mesopotamia and the Indus Valley to the territory between the Yangtze and the Yellow River. There people began to grow wheat, barley and other cereals.

5000 years ago, people began to actively grow rice. This, in turn, requires artificial land irrigation. Consequently, natural landscapes turn into man-made swamps, which is a source of methane.

Drivers of climate change

Climate change is caused by changes in the earth's atmosphere, processes occurring in other parts of the earth such as oceans, glaciers, and effects associated with human activities. The external processes that shape the climate are changes in solar radiation and the Earth's orbit.

change in size, topography and relative position of continents and oceans,
change in the luminosity of the sun
changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis,
change in the transparency of the atmosphere and its composition as a result of changes in the volcanic activity of the Earth,
change in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4) in the atmosphere,
change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (albedo),
change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.

Climate Change on Earth

Weather is the daily state of the atmosphere. The weather is a chaotic non-linear dynamic system. Climate is the average state of the weather and is predictable. The climate includes such indicators as average temperature, rainfall, quantity sunny days and other variables that can be measured at any given location. However, there are also processes on Earth that can affect the climate. Weather, the state of the atmosphere in the place under consideration at a certain moment or for a limited period of time (day, month, year). P.'s long-term regime is called climate. P. is characterized by meteorological elements: pressure, temperature, air humidity, wind strength and direction, cloudiness (duration of sunshine), precipitation, visibility range, the presence of fogs, snowstorms, thunderstorms and other atmospheric phenomena. As it expands economic activity the concept of airspace expands accordingly. Thus, with the development of aviation, the concept of airspace in a free atmosphere arose; the importance of such an element of weather as atmospheric visibility has increased. P.'s characteristics can also include data on the influx of solar radiation, atmospheric turbulence, and some characteristics of the electrical state of the air.

glaciation

There is skepticism about geoengineering methods of extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, to proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or pump it into rocks on the ocean floor: removing 50 millionths of a gas using this technology will cost at least 20 trillion dollars, which is twice the US national debt.

Plate tectonics

Over long periods of time, plate tectonic movements move continents, form oceans, create and destroy mountain ranges, i.e. create a surface on which there is a climate. Recent studies show that tectonic movements exacerbated the conditions of the last ice age: about 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided, forming the Isthmus of Panama and blocking the direct mixing of the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

solar radiation

Change in solar activity over the past few centuries

On shorter time intervals, changes in solar activity are also observed: an 11-year solar cycle and longer modulations. However, the 11-year cycle of sunspot occurrence and disappearance is not tracked explicitly in the climatological data. Changes in solar activity are considered an important factor in the onset of the Little Ice Age, as well as some of the warming events observed between 1900 and 1950. The cyclical nature of solar activity is not yet fully understood; it differs from those slow changes that accompany the development and aging of the Sun.

Orbit changes

In terms of their impact on climate, changes in the Earth's orbit are similar to fluctuations in solar activity, since small deviations in the position of the orbit lead to a redistribution of solar radiation on the Earth's surface. Such changes in the position of the orbit are called Milankovitch cycles, they are predictable with high accuracy, since they are the result of the physical interaction of the Earth, its moon, and other planets. Orbital changes are considered to be the main reasons for the alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the last ice age. The result of the precession of the earth's orbit is also smaller scale changes, such as the periodic increase and decrease in the area of the Sahara desert.

Volcanism

One strong volcanic eruption can affect the climate, causing a cooling spell lasting several years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 significantly affected the climate. The giant eruptions that form the largest igneous provinces occur only a few times every hundred million years, but they affect the climate for millions of years and cause the extinction of species. Initially, it was assumed that the cause of the cooling was volcanic dust thrown into the atmosphere, since it prevents solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface. However, measurements show that most of the dust settles on the Earth's surface within six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the geochemical carbon cycle. For many geological periods carbon dioxide was released from the Earth's interior into the atmosphere, thereby neutralizing the amount of CO 2 removed from the atmosphere and bound by sedimentary rocks and other geological absorbers of CO 2 . However, this contribution is not comparable in magnitude to the anthropogenic emission of carbon monoxide, which, according to the US Geological Survey, is 130 times greater than the amount of CO 2 emitted by volcanoes.

Anthropogenic impact on climate change

Anthropogenic factors include human activities that change environment and affects the climate. In some cases the causal relationship is direct and unambiguous, such as in the effect of irrigation on temperature and humidity, in other cases the relationship is less clear. Various hypotheses of human influence on climate have been discussed over the years. In the late 19th century, in the western United States and Australia, for example, the "rain follows the plow" theory was popular.

The main problems today are: the increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols in the atmosphere that affect its cooling, and the cement industry. Other factors such as land use, depletion of the ozone layer, livestock and deforestation also affect the climate.

Fuel combustion

Interaction of factors

The impact on the climate of all factors, both natural and anthropogenic, is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere in W/m 2 .

Volcanic eruptions, glaciations, continental drift and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate. On a scale of several years, volcanoes can play leading role. As a result of the 1991 eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines, so much ash was thrown to a height of 35 km that the average level of solar radiation decreased by 2.5 W / m 2. However, these changes are not long-term, particles settle down relatively quickly. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process is likely to be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

Global warming and other irreversible changes in the environment are of concern to many scientists.

What threatens Russia with climate change? Bias climatic zones, insect invasions, destructive natural disasters and crop failures - in the selection of RIA Novosti.

Climate change has led to the invasion of ticks in Russia

Climate change has led to a strong increase in the number and rapid spread of ticks in central Russia, the North, Siberia and the Far East, according to the World Fund wildlife(WWF) Russia.

"More frequent than before, warm winters and springs lead to the fact that a greater percentage of ticks successfully overwinter, their numbers are growing, and they are spreading over an ever larger area. Climate change forecasts for the coming decades clearly show that trends will not change, which means that the ticks themselves will not crawl away and die, and the problem will only get worse," says Alexei Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy Program at WWF Russia, quoted by the fund.

According to WWF, in regions where ticks have always been, there are more of them. it Perm region, Vologda, Kostroma, Kirov and other regions, Siberia and the Far East. But it's worse that ticks have appeared where they are "not known". They spread to the north of the Arkhangelsk region, and the west, and even the south of Russia. If earlier only the two northernmost districts of the Moscow region, Taldomsky and Dmitrovsky, were considered dangerous for tick-borne encephalitis, now ticks have been seen in the middle part of the region and even in the south, WWF notes.

"The most dangerous months when ticks are most active are May and June, although outbreaks of activity occur at the end of summer. The most dangerous places are small forests of deciduous trees - young birch and aspen forests, edges and forest areas with tall grass. Conifers are much less dangerous forests, especially if there is little grass in them," the foundation emphasizes.

As ecologists add, the "infection" of the ticks themselves, which carry very serious diseases: encephalitis, Lyme disease (borreliosis), has not changed. As before, carriers of the most dangerous disease - encephalitis - are only 1-2 ticks out of a thousand. Other diseases - a few dozen out of a thousand. But the ticks themselves became larger and, most importantly, they appeared in new places.

The positive effect of climate change for the Russian Federation will be short-lived

The positive effects of climate change on Russian agriculture, which the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Nikolai Fedorov said earlier in an interview, are likely to be short-lived and may come to naught by 2020, the coordinator of the climate and energy program of the World Wildlife Fund told RIA Novosti (WWF) Russia Alexey Kokorin.

Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorov said in an interview on Wednesday that climate change and, in particular, warming will be in the interests of the country, since the permafrost area, which today accounts for about 60% of the territory of the Russian Federation, will shrink, and the area of land suitable for farming agriculture, on the contrary, to increase.

According to Kokorin, the Institute of Agricultural Meteorology of Roshydromet in Obninsk has analyzed in sufficient detail possible climate change scenarios and their impact on the conditions for farming in the country for all macroregions of Russia.

“It turns out that, indeed, for some time there may be a so-called positive impact on conditional climatic productivity. But then, in some cases from 2020, in some cases from 2030, depending on the scenario, it still goes down.” - said Kokorin.

"That is, of course, some catastrophic things that are predicted, say, for Uzbekistan or for certain African countries, are not expected. Moreover, a small positive and short-term effect is expected - but here you should always make a reservation, firstly what period of time are we talking about, and secondly, that then it will still go, unfortunately, a minus," the expert added.

Kokorin recalled that one of the consequences of climate change will be an increase in the scale and frequency of dangerous weather events, which can cause very significant damage to farmers in a particular region. This means that it is necessary to improve the insurance system in agriculture, which, according to Kokorin, "on the one hand, is already working, on the other, it is still working with failures." In particular, it is necessary to establish interaction between agricultural producers, insurance companies and regional divisions of Roshydromet.

The temperature in winter in the Russian Federation by the middle of the century can rise by 2-5 degrees

Temperature in winter period on the entire territory of Russia by the middle of the XXI century may increase due to global climate change by two to five degrees Celsius, warns the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.

"The greatest warming will affect winter ... in the middle of the 21st century, an increase of 2-5 degrees is predicted throughout the country," the Antistihiia Center's forecast for 2013 says. According to its experts, in most of the European territory of Russia and western Siberia, the temperature increase in winter in the period up to 2015 may be one to two degrees.

"The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will amount to 1-3 degrees by the middle of the century," the document says.

As previously reported, the rate of warming in Russia over 100 years is one and a half to two times faster than in the whole world, and over the past decade, the rate of warming in the country has increased several times compared to the 20th century.

The climate in Russia has been warming almost twice as fast as in the whole world for a century.

The rate of warming on the territory of Russia over 100 years due to global climate change is one and a half to two times faster than in the whole world, warns the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation.

"Over the past 100 years, the average temperature rise in Russia has been one and a half to two times higher than global warming in the whole Earth," the Antistichia Center's forecast for 2013 says.

The document notes that in the 21st century, the bulk of Russia's territory "will be in an area of more significant warming compared to global warming." "At the same time, warming will significantly depend on the time of year and the region, especially Siberia and the subarctic regions," the forecast says.

AT last years number of dangerous natural phenomena and major man-made disasters is steadily increasing. Emergency risks arising in the process of global climate change and economic activity pose a significant threat to the population and economic facilities of the country.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, in areas of possible impact damaging factors more than 90 million Russians, or 60% of the country's population, live in case of accidents at critically important and potentially dangerous facilities. Annual economic damage (direct and indirect) from emergency situations of various nature can reach 1.5-2% of gross domestic product - from 675 to 900 billion rubles.

Climate warming leads to more snow in Siberia

Global climate change is leading to the growth of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia, Vladimir Kotlyakov, director of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Thursday, speaking at the World Snow Forum.

"A paradox arises - with warming, which is now typical, there is more snow on the Earth. This happens in large expanses of Siberia, where there is more snow than it was one or two decades ago," said Kotlyakov, honorary president of the Russian Geographical Society.

According to the geographer, scientists have been observing the trend of growing snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1960s, when satellite observations of the spread of snow cover began.

“Now is the era of global warming, and as the air temperature increases, the moisture content of air masses also increases, therefore, in cold areas, the amount of snowfall increases. This indicates a great sensitivity of the snow cover to any changes in the composition of the atmosphere and its circulation, and this must be remembered when assessment of any anthropogenic impacts on the environment," the scientist explained.

In general, there is much more snow in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, where the ocean prevents its distribution. So, in February, 19% of the globe is covered with snow, while 31% of the area of the Northern Hemisphere and 7.5% of the area of the Southern Hemisphere.
"In August, snow covers only 9% of the entire globe. In the Northern Hemisphere, the snow cover changes more than seven times during the year, and in the Southern - less than twice," Kotlyakov added.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in December 2012, the total snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was the largest in more than 130 years of observations - it exceeded the average by almost 3 million square kilometers and 200 thousand square kilometers surpassed the 1985 record. On average, according to American meteorologists, the area of snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in winter has grown at a rate of about 0.1% per decade.

European Russia will not receive bonuses from warming, the scientist said

Calculations of global warming processes in the 21st century on the East European Plain and in Western Siberia indicate that climate change will not have any positive environmental and economic consequences for these regions, said Alexander Kislov, head of the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, speaking at the international conference "Problems of adaptation to climate change."

Kislov, Dean of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University Nikolai Kasimov and their colleagues analyzed the geographic, environmental and economic consequences of global warming in the East European Plain and Western Siberia in the 21st century using the CMIP3 model.

In particular, changes in river flow, the state of permafrost, the distribution of vegetation cover, and the characteristics of the incidence of malaria in the population were considered. In addition, it was studied how the volumes of hydropower and agro-climatic resources react to climatic processes, how the duration of the heating period changes.

"Climate change almost nowhere leads to positive results in terms of ecology and economy (except for lower heating costs), at least in the short term. Significant deterioration of hydrological resources is expected in the southern part of the East European Plain," the scientists conclude.

At the same time, the consequences of climate change are much more pronounced in the East European Plain than in Western Siberia.

"The response of individual regions to global changes is very different ... each region is dominated by its own natural and ecological process caused by climate change, for example, the thawing of permafrost or desertification processes," Kislov concluded.

The international conference "Problems of adaptation to climate change" (PAIK-2011) is held on behalf of the government of the Russian Federation by Roshydromet with the participation of other departments, the Russian Academy of Sciences, business and public organizations supported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNESCO, the World Bank and other international institutions.

The meeting, the organizing committee of which is headed by the head of Roshydromet Alexander Frolov, is attended by the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rajendra Pachauri, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Disaster Risk Reduction Margareta Wahlstrem, WMO Secretary General Mishesh Jarraud, representatives of the World Bank, UNEP, Russian and foreign climatologists and meteorologists , politicians, officials, economists and businessmen.

The duration of the fire hazard period in the Russian Federation will increase by 40% by 2015

The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation predicts an increase in the duration of the fire hazard period in central Russia by 40%, that is, by almost two months, until 2015 due to global climate change.

"The duration of the fire season in the middle latitude zone of Russia may increase by 50-60 days, that is, by 30-40%, in comparison with the existing average long-term values," Vladislav Bolov, head of the Antistihiia Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, told RIA Novosti on Friday.

According to him, this will significantly increase the threats and risks of large-scale emergencies associated with wildfires.

"The duration of the fire hazard situation will increase most significantly in the south of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, in the Kurgan, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk regions, Krasnoyarsk and Altai territories, as well as in Yakutia," Bolov said.

At the same time, he noted that "compared to the current values, an increase in the number of days with a fire hazard situation up to five days per season is predicted for most of the country's territory."

Last summer and part of autumn, large-scale natural fires blazed across a significant part of the country, caused by abnormal heat. In 19 subjects of the federation, 199 were affected settlements, 3.2 thousand houses burned down, 62 people died. The total damage amounted to over 12 billion rubles. This year, the fire also engulfed large areas, primarily Far East and Siberia.

Forest-steppe may come to Moscow by the end of the century due to climate change

Moscow and the Moscow region 50-100 years after the end of the current "transitional" period of warming in terms of climatic conditions will be similar to the forest-steppes of the Kursk and Oryol regions with dry summers and warm winters, says Pavel Toropov, senior researcher at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University.

"After the end of the transitional climate process that is currently taking place, the climate will return to its new warmer state, in 50-100 years natural areas may change. Judging by existing forecasts, climatic conditions will be closer to landscapes and natural conditions forest-steppes, which are currently observed in the Kursk and Oryol regions," Toropov said at a press conference in RIA Novosti.

According to him, Moscow and the region will not be left without snow as a result of climate warming, but hot dry summers and warmer, milder winters will be observed.

"The climate of the region will change significantly, apparently, but in the next 50 years we will not remain without snow and will not start growing apricots and peaches," Toropov added.

Russia may lose up to 20% of grain annually due to climate change

Russia may lose up to 20% of its grain harvest annually in the next five to ten years due to global climate change on the planet and the increase in aridity in the southern regions of the Union State of the Russian Federation and Belarus, according to an assessment report on the consequences of climate change for the Union State, published on the Roshydromet website. .

The report "On strategic assessments of the consequences of climate change in the next 10-20 years for the natural environment and economy of the Union State" was considered at a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State on October 28, 2009.

According to Rosstat, as of December 1, 2009, grain harvest in all categories of farms amounted to 102.7 million tons in bunker weight. This corresponds to 95.7 million tonnes in post-refinery weight, with an average value of unused grain waste of 6.8% in 2004-2008.

The report says that the most important negative feature of the expected climate change is the increase in aridity in the southern regions of the Union State that accompanies the warming process.

"The expected increase in climate aridity may lead to a decrease in yields in the main grain-producing regions of Russia (potential annual losses in the volume of grain harvest, while maintaining the existing system of land cultivation and the applied breeding species, can reach up to 15-20% in the next five to ten years gross grain harvest), but will not, apparently, have a significant negative impact on Agriculture sufficiently moist Non-Chernozem Zone," the report notes.

According to the report, in Belarus and a number of regions of the European territory of the Russian Federation, the conditions for the growth and formation of the crop of medium and late varieties of potatoes, flax, vegetables (cabbage), and the second mowing of grasses will worsen.

The document proposes to use additional resources heat to increase the share of more heat-loving and drought-resistant crops, to expand stubble (crop) crops and the volume of irrigation work, to introduce drip irrigation systems.

The border of permafrost in the Arctic has retreated up to 80 km due to warming

The border of permafrost in the Arctic regions of Russia over the past decades has receded due to global warming to 80 kilometers, which has intensified the processes of soil degradation, the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation reports on Tuesday.

The total area of permafrost regions in Russia is about 10.7 million square kilometers or about 63% of the country's territory. More than 70% of proven oil reserves, about 93% of natural gas, significant coal deposits are concentrated here, and an extensive infrastructure of fuel and energy complex facilities has also been created.

"The southern border of the VM over the past few decades has shifted to a distance of 40 to 80 kilometers ... Degradation processes (of the soil) have intensified - seasonal thawing areas (taliks) and thermokarst phenomena have appeared," the forecast of the emergency situation on the territory of the Russian Federation for 2012 says. prepared by the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia.

The department also fixes changes temperature conditions the top layer of permafrost over the past 40 years.

"Observational data demonstrate an almost universal increase, since 1970, in the average annual temperature of the upper layer of the VM. In the north of the European territory of Russia, it amounted to 1.2-2.4 degrees, in the north of Western Siberia - 1, Eastern Siberia - 1.3, Central Yakutia - 1.5 degrees," the document says.

At the same time, the Ministry of Emergency Situations notes the impact of permafrost degradation on the stability of various structures, primarily residential buildings, industrial facilities and pipelines, as well as roads and railways, runways and power lines.

"This was one of the main prerequisites for the fact that the number of accidents and various damages to the above objects has significantly increased in the territory of the VM in recent years," the forecast says.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, about 250 structures in the Norilsk industrial complex alone have received significant deformations, almost 40 residential buildings have been demolished or are scheduled for demolition.

Climate changes are long-term (over 10 years) directed or rhythmic changes in climatic conditions on the Earth as a whole or in its large regions. Climate change is caused by dynamic processes on the Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, to a large extent, human activities. According to the World Meteorological Organization, in recent decades, the average annual temperature has been increasing abnormally rapidly.
The problem of global climate change is one of the key environmental problems of the Earth. The cause of climate change is the dynamic processes on the planet, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, to a large extent, human activities.

What evidence is there for climate change?

They are well known to everyone (this is already noticeable even without instruments) - an increase in the average global temperature (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and more destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia… (see also “5 Climate Prophecies That Came True”). And in some places, for example, in Antarctica, there is a cooling.
If the climate has changed before, why is it now a problem?

Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about ice ages (they are small and large), with a global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average world temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is about + 14 ° C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that in addition to the natural causes of climate change, which have always been, another factor is added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), the impact of which on climate change, according to some researchers, is becoming stronger every year.

What are the causes of climate change?

The main driver of climate is the sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface (stronger at the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.
In addition, climate is affected by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All of these are natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climatic cycles such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half of the temperature changes before 1950 (solar activity leads to an increase in temperature, and volcanic activity leads to a decrease).
Recently, one more factor has been added to natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the increase in the greenhouse effect, the impact of which on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the impact of changes in solar activity.

What is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect is the delay by the Earth's atmosphere of the planet's thermal radiation. The greenhouse effect was observed by any of us: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same is observed in the scale globe: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the surface of the Earth, but the thermal energy radiated by the Earth cannot escape back into space, since the Earth's atmosphere delays it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and delays long thermal ( or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth's surface. There is a greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have the ability to delay long waves. They are called "greenhouse" or "greenhouse" gases.
Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small amounts (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain the Earth's heat balance at a level suitable for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect, if it were not for it, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30 ° C not +14°C, as it is now, but -17°C.
The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten either the Earth or humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe our lives to it.

But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and a violation of the heat balance of the Earth. This is exactly what happened in the last two centuries of the development of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhausts, factory chimneys and other man-made sources of pollution emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases per year into the atmosphere.

Climatic changes in Russia in the XX century. generally in line with global trends. For example, the 1990s also turned out to be the hottest for a very long time. and the beginning of the 21st century, especially in Western and Central Siberia.
An interesting forecast of climatic changes expected in the territory of the former USSR until the middle of the 21st century was published by A. A. Velichko. You can get acquainted with this forecast, prepared by the laboratory of evolutionary geography of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, using the maps of the consequences of global warming and the levels of destabilization of geosystems on the territory of the former USSR compiled by the same laboratory.

Other forecasts have also been published. According to them, climate warming will generally have a favorable effect on the North of Russia, where living conditions will change for the better. However, the movement of the southern border of permafrost to the north will simultaneously create a number of problems, since it can lead to the destruction of buildings, roads, pipelines built taking into account the current distribution of frozen soils. In the southern regions of the country, the situation will be more complicated. For example, dry steppes may become even more arid. And this is not to mention the flooding of many port cities and coastal lowlands.

Earth's climate is changing rapidly. Scientists are trying to figure out what causes climate change by gathering evidence to rule out the wrong causes and figure out who is responsible.

Based on over a hundred scientific research It is clear that humans are responsible for most of the climate change over the past 150 years.

People influence climate change

Humans are not the only cause of climate change. Weather has changed throughout Earth's history, long before humans evolved. The sun is the main climate factor. Roughly speaking, the global temperature will increase when more energy from the Sun enters the atmosphere than returns to space through the atmosphere. The Earth cools at any time if more energy returns to space than comes from the Sun, while humans can influence this balance. There are other factors too, from continental drift and changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit to changes in solar activity and phenomena like the El Niño process (fluctuating water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean), all of which can affect the climate. Given the rate of climate change today, scientists can exclude from the majority some causes that occur too slowly to explain current climate change, while others have small cycles rather than long-term trends in climate change in part of the planet. Scientists are aware of these factors and can take them into account when assessing human-induced weather changes.

Human impact on climate change was first described over a hundred years ago, based on research in the 1850s by the English physicist John Tyndall.

Light from the Sun heats the Earth's surface, which then emits energy in the form of infrared radiation, which is felt on a sunny day. Greenhouse gases such as water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2) absorb this radiated energy, warming the atmosphere and surface. This process leads to a warmer temperature of the Earth than if it were heated only by direct sunlight.

For over 100 years, scientists have considered humans as the main cause of current climate change. At the turn of the 20th century, the Swedish physical chemist Svante Arrhenius suggested that humans, as a result of burning coal, increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and increased the natural warming effect, causing the atmosphere to warm more than if it all went through strictly natural processes.

When people burn gasoline, coal, natural gas, and other fuels to generate electricity or drive cars, they release significant amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. When a liter of gasoline is burned, the amount of CO2 released will be 2 kg. Greenhouse gases are emitted from power plants and cars, from landfills, farms and cleared forests, and through other subtle processes.

Since the 1950s, scientists have begun to methodically measure the global increase in carbon dioxide. They have since confirmed that the increase is primarily from the burning of fossil fuels (and through other areas of human activity such as land clearing). This increase as well as the change in CO2 is added to the atmosphere and provides a "smoking gun" which indicates that people are responsible for elevated levels carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Changing of the climate- fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Changes in both mean values of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology. The cause of climate change is dynamic processes on the Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, according to one version, more recently, human activity. Recently, the term "climate change" has been used as a rule (especially in the context of environmental policy) to denote change in modern climate.

Drivers of climate change

change in size, topography and relative position of continents and oceans,
change in the luminosity of the sun
changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis,
change in the transparency of the atmosphere and its composition as a result of changes in the volcanic activity of the Earth,
change in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4) in the atmosphere,
change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (albedo),
change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.
change in the natural sublayer of the Earth between the core and the earth's crust, due to the pumping of oil and gas.

Climate Change on Earth

Weather is the daily state of the atmosphere. The weather is a chaotic non-linear dynamic system. Climate is the average state of the weather and is predictable. Climate includes such variables as average temperature, rainfall, number of sunny days, and other variables that can be measured in a particular place. However, there are also processes on Earth that can affect the climate.

glaciation

Glaciers are recognized as one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change. They significantly increase in size during climate cooling (the so-called "little ice ages") and decrease during climate warming. Glaciers grow and melt due to natural changes and under the influence of external influences. In the last century, glaciers have not been able to regenerate enough ice during winters to replace ice loss during the summer months.

The most significant climatic processes over the past few million years are the change of glacial (glacial epochs) and interglacial (interglacial) epochs of the current ice age, due to changes in the orbit and axis of the Earth. Changes in the state of continental ice and fluctuations in sea level within 130 meters are in most regions the key consequences of climate change.

Ocean variability

On a decadal scale, climate change may be the result of interactions between the atmosphere and the world's oceans. Many climate fluctuations, including the most famous El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, are due in part to the ability of the world's oceans to accumulate thermal energy and moving this energy to different parts of the ocean. On a longer scale, thermohaline circulation occurs in the oceans, which plays a key role in the redistribution of heat and can significantly influence the climate.

climate memory

More generally, the variability of the climate system is a form of hysteresis, which means that the current state of the climate is not only a consequence of the influence of certain factors, but also the entire history of its state. For example, during ten years of drought, lakes partially dry up, plants die, and the area of deserts increases. These conditions in turn cause less abundant rainfall in the years following the drought. That. climate change is a self-regulating process, since the environment reacts in a certain way to external influences, and, changing, is itself capable of influencing the climate.

Non-climatic factors and their impact on climate change

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases are considered to be main reason global warming. Greenhouse gases are also important for understanding the climate history of the Earth. According to research, the greenhouse effect, resulting from the warming of the atmosphere by thermal energy held by greenhouse gases, is a key process that regulates the Earth's temperature.

During the last 500 million years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has varied from 200 to more than 5000 ppm due to the influence of geological and biological processes. However, in 1999, Weiser et al. showed that over the past tens of millions of years there is no strict correlation between the concentration of greenhouse gases and climate change and that the tectonic movement of the lithospheric plates plays a more important role. Later, Royer et al. used the CO 2 -climate correlation to derive a "climate sensitivity" value. There are several examples of rapid changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere that are strongly correlated with strong warming, including the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, the Permian-Triassic extinction of species, and the end of the Varangian snowball earth event.

Rising levels of carbon dioxide have been considered the main cause of global warming since the 1950s. According to the data of the Interstate Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of 2007, the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere in 2005 was 379 ppm, in the pre-industrial period it was 280 ppm.

To prevent dramatic warming in the coming years, the concentration of carbon dioxide must be reduced to pre-industrial age levels of 350 parts per million (0.035%) (now 385 parts per million and increasing by 2 parts per million (0.0002%) in year, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation).

Plate tectonics

Over long periods of time, plate tectonic movements move continents, form oceans, create and destroy mountain ranges, that is, create a surface on which there is a climate. Recent studies show that tectonic movements exacerbated the conditions of the last ice age: about 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided, forming the Isthmus of Panama and blocking the direct mixing of the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

solar radiation

The sun is the main source of heat in the climate system. Solar energy, converted into heat on the Earth's surface, is an integral component that forms the Earth's climate. If we consider a long period of time, then in this framework the Sun becomes brighter and releases more energy, as it develops according to the main sequence. This slow development also affects the earth's atmosphere. It is believed that in the early stages of the history of the Earth, the Sun was too cold for the water on the Earth's surface to be liquid, which led to the so-called. "The paradox of a faint young Sun".

On shorter time intervals, changes in solar activity are also observed: an 11-year solar cycle and longer modulations. However, the 11-year cycle of sunspot occurrence and disappearance is not tracked explicitly in the climatological data. Changes in solar activity are considered an important factor in the onset of the Little Ice Age, as well as some of the warming observed between 1900 and 1950. The cyclical nature of solar activity is not yet fully understood; it differs from those slow changes that accompany the development and aging of the Sun.

Orbit changes

In terms of their impact on climate, changes in the Earth's orbit are similar to fluctuations in solar activity, since small deviations in the position of the orbit lead to a redistribution of solar radiation on the Earth's surface. Such changes in the position of the orbit are called Milankovitch cycles, they are predictable with high accuracy, since they are the result of the physical interaction of the Earth, its moon satellite and other planets. Orbital changes are considered to be the main reasons for the alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the last ice age. The result of the precession of the Earth's orbit is also less large-scale changes, such as the periodic increase and decrease in the area of the Sahara desert.

Volcanism

Volcanoes are also part of the geochemical carbon cycle. Over many geological periods, carbon dioxide has been released from the Earth's interior into the atmosphere, thereby neutralizing the amount of CO 2 removed from the atmosphere and bound by sedimentary rocks and other geological sinks of CO 2 . However, this contribution is not comparable in magnitude to the anthropogenic emission of carbon monoxide, which, according to the US Geological Survey, is 130 times greater than the amount of CO 2 emitted by volcanoes.

Anthropogenic impact on climate change

Anthropogenic factors include human activities that change the environment and affect the climate. In some cases the causal relationship is direct and unambiguous, such as in the effect of irrigation on temperature and humidity, in other cases the relationship is less clear. Various hypotheses of human influence on climate have been discussed over the years.

Fuel combustion

Starting to rise during the industrial revolution in the 1850s and gradually accelerating, human consumption of fuel caused the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere to rise from ~280 ppm to 380 ppm. With this growth, the concentration projected to the end of the 21st century would be over 560 ppm. Atmospheric CO 2 levels are now known to be higher than at any time in the past 750,000 years. Together with increasing concentrations of methane, these changes portend a temperature rise of 1.4-5.6°C between 1990 and 2040.

Aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols, especially sulfates emitted from fuel combustion, are thought to contribute to the cooling of the atmosphere. It is believed that this property is the reason for the relative "plateau" on the temperature chart in the middle of the 20th century.

cement industry

Cement production is an intensive source of CO 2 emissions. Carbon dioxide is formed when calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) is heated to produce the cement ingredient calcium oxide (CaO or quicklime). Cement production is responsible for approximately 5% of CO 2 emissions from industrial processes (energy and industrial sectors). When cement is mixed, the same amount of CO 2 is absorbed from the atmosphere during the reverse reaction CaO + CO 2 = CaCO 3. Therefore, the production and consumption of cement only changes the local concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere, without changing the average value.

land use

Land use has a significant impact on climate. Irrigation, deforestation and agriculture are fundamentally changing the environment. For example, in an irrigated area, the water balance changes. Land use can change the albedo of a particular area, since it changes the properties of the underlying surface and, thereby, the amount of absorbed solar radiation.

Cattle breeding

Livestock is responsible for 18% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, according to the 2006 UN Livestock Long Shadow report. This includes changes in land use, i.e. clearing forests for pastures. AT tropical forests Amazons 70% of deforestation is for pastures, which was the main reason why the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in its 2006 agricultural report included land use under the influence of pastoralism. In addition to CO 2 emissions, animal husbandry is responsible for 65% of nitric oxide and 37% of methane emissions of anthropogenic origin.

This figure was revised in 2009 by two scientists from the Worldwatch Institute: they estimated the contribution of livestock to greenhouse gas emissions at 81% of the world.

Interaction of factors

The impact on the climate of all factors, both natural and anthropogenic, is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere in W/m 2 .

Volcanic eruptions, glaciations, continental drift and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate. On a scale of several years, volcanoes may play a major role. As a result of the 1991 eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines, so much ash was thrown to a height of 35 km that the average level of solar radiation decreased by 2.5 W / m 2. However, these changes are not long-term, particles settle down relatively quickly. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process is likely to be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

On a scale of several centuries, in 2005 compared to 1750 there is a combination of multidirectional factors, each of which is much weaker than the result of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, estimated as a warming of 2.4-3.0 W/m 2 . The human influence is less than 1% of the total radiation balance, and the anthropogenic increase in the natural greenhouse effect is approximately 2%, from 33 to 33.7 degrees C. Thus, the average air temperature near the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (since about 1750) by 0.7 °С

Selected bibliography

Agreements at the global and regional level

Porfiriev B.N., Kattsov V.M., Roginko S.A. - Climate change and international security (2011)

Safonov G.V. - Dangerous Consequences of Global Climate Change (2006)

Articles

Avdeeva T.G. - Perspectives on international negotiations on climate change: in the wake of the UN Copenhagen Conference (2010)

Aidaraliev A.A. - Global climate change and sustainable development of mountain regions of the Kyrgyz Republic (2013)

Agaltseva N. - Impact of climate change on water resources of Uzbekistan (2010)

Astafieva N.M., Raev M.D., Komarova N.Yu. - Regional heterogeneity of climate change (2008)

Artykova F.Ya., Azimova G.U., Ishniyazova F.A. - On the factors affecting meteorological conditions and water resources of urbanized territories (2018)

Borisova E.A. - Evolution of views on climate change in Central Asia (2013)

Vasiltsov V.S., Yashalova N.N. - Climate policy in an innovative economy: national and international aspects (2018)

Virt D.A. - Global Governance in the Sphere of Climate Change. Paris Agreement: A New Component of the UN Climate Regime (2017)

Getman A.P., Lozo V.I. - Legal protection of the Earth's climate: historical dynamics, main components and prospects for the development of the Kyoto process (2012)

Demirchyan K.S., Kondratiev K.Ya., Demirchyan K.K. - Global warming and the "Policy" of its prevention (2010)

Dobretsov N.L. - Climate in time and space (2010)