Traditional methods of research of international relations. International Student Scientific Bulletin. Other analytical methods

26.11.2019

To study international relations, most of the general scientific methods and techniques are used, which are also used in studies of other social phenomena. At the same time, for the analysis of international relations, there are also special methodological approaches due to the specifics of political processes that differ from political processes unfolding within individual states.

A significant place in the study of world politics and international relations belongs to the method of observation. First of all, we see and then evaluate the events taking place in the sphere of international politics. AT recent times professionals are increasingly turning to instrumental observation, which is carried out with the help of technical means. For example, the most important phenomena of international life, such as meetings of leaders of states, international conferences, the activities of international organizations, international conflicts, negotiations on their settlement, we can observe in recordings (on videotape), in television programs.

Interesting material for analysis included surveillance, i.e., the observation that is carried out by direct participants in the events or persons who are inside the structures being studied. The result of such observation is the memoirs of well-known politicians and diplomats, which make it possible to obtain information on the problems of international relations, to draw conclusions of a theoretical and applied nature. Memoirs are the most important source for studying the history of international relations. More fundamental and informative analytical research, made on the basis of their own diplomatic and political experience.

Important information about the foreign policy of states, about the motives for adopting external political decisions can be obtained by studying the relevant documents. Method of studying documents plays the greatest role in the study of the history of international relations, but for the study of current, urgent problems of international politics, its use is limited. The fact is that information about foreign policy and international relations often belongs to the sphere of state secrets and documents containing such information are available to a limited circle of people.

If the available documents do not make it possible to adequately assess the intentions, goals, predict the possible actions of the participants in the foreign policy process, specialists can apply content analysis (content analysis). This is the name of the method of analysis and evaluation of texts. This method was developed by American sociologists and used in 1939-1940. to analyze the speeches of the leaders of Nazi Germany in order to predict their actions. The content analysis method was used by US special agencies for intelligence purposes. Only in the late 1950s. it began to be applied widely and acquired the status of a methodology for studying social phenomena.

In the study of international relations finds application and event analysis method (event analysis), which is based on tracking the dynamics of events in the international arena in order to determine the main trends in the development of the political situation in countries, regions and in the world as a whole. As foreign studies show, with the help of event analysis, one can successfully study international negotiations. In this case, the focus is on the dynamics of the behavior of the participants in the negotiation process, the intensity of proposals, the dynamics of mutual concessions, etc.

In the 50-60s. 20th century within the framework of the modernist direction for the study of international relations, methodological approaches borrowed from other social sciences and humanities began to be widely used. In particular, cognitive mapping method was first tested in the framework of cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychologists study the features and dynamics of the formation of knowledge and ideas of a person about the world around him. On the basis of this, the behavior of the individual in different situations. The basic concept in the methodology of cognitive mapping is a cognitive map, which is a graphic representation of the strategy of obtaining, processing and storing information contained in the human mind and forming the foundation of a person's ideas about his past, present and possible future. In research on international relations, cognitive mapping is used to determine how a particular leader sees a political problem and, therefore, what decisions he can make in a particular international situation. The disadvantage of cognitive mapping is the complexity of this method, so it is rarely used in practice.

Another method developed within the framework of other sciences, and then found application in the study of international relations, was system modeling method. This is a method of studying an object based on the construction of a cognitive image that has a formal resemblance to the object itself and reflects its qualities. The system modeling method requires the researcher to have special mathematical knowledge. It should be noted that the passion for mathematical approaches does not always give a positive effect. This has been shown by the experience of American and Western European political science. However, the rapid development of information technology expands the possibilities of using mathematical approaches and quantitative methods in the study of world politics and international relations.

The development of the system of international relations in the 19th century.

Lecture 1. Theory of international relations in the structure of social sciences and humanities. History and methods of studying international relations. one

Lecture 2. History of the study of international relations in world historical, legal and philosophical thought. 12

Lecture 3. Systems of world politics in the 17th-20th centuries. Archaic and Westphalian systems. 24

Lecture 4. Vienna, Paris, Versailles, Yalta-Potsdam and post-bipolar MO systems. 29

Lecture 5. Theoretical concepts of international relations in the 19th - first half of the 20th century. Marxism. 35

Lecture 6. Theoretical concepts of international relations in the 19th - first half of the 20th centuries. Geopolitics. 49

Lecture 7. Theoretical concepts of international relations in the 19th - first half of the 20th centuries. Russian geopolitical theories. 71

Lecture 8. Theoretical schools in modern IR research. Realism and neorealism. 88

Lecture 9. Theoretical schools in modern IR research. Liberalism, neoliberalism, postmodernism and postmarxism. 98

Lecture 10. Theoretical concepts of world politics and international relations after the collapse of the bipolar system of the Moscow Region. 110

Lecture 11. Globalization as the main trend in the development of the modern world political process 126

Lecture 12. Criticism of globalism and globalization in modern TMT. 141

Lecture 13 international security, war and peace in the theory of international relations. 155

Lecture 14 modern world. 175

Lecture 15. International organizations: history, typology and goals at the present stage. 184

Lecture 16

Lecture 17. Theory of international law and morality in international relations. 206

Lecture 18. Problems of resolving international conflicts in modern TMT. 219

Lecture 1. Theory of international relations in the structure of social sciences and humanities. History and methods of studying international relations.

Specifics of studying the theory of international relations.

Most often, what is called TMT does not represent a certain integrity - it is characterized by continuous rivalry and mutual criticism of different research paradigms, methodological approaches, a variety of topics identified as the main ones, a different understanding of the subject of the theory and its object. Adherents of different points of view either understand TMT as a set of conceptual generalizations, conceptual apparatus and methodological approaches accepted by a certain part of the scientific community as the basis for further study of international relations (theory of political realism, neoliberal theory, etc.), or consider TMT as a certain system of views developed within the framework of one or another well-known paradigm (theories of national interest, state of nature, balance of power, configuration-polarity of the international system; neoliberal theories of a democratic world, international regimes, hegemonic stability, etc.). In other words, the TIR seems to be dissolving: instead of the theory of international relations, we are faced with a certain multitude of theories, which are also built on different grounds and designed to meet different criteria. However, this does not mean the need to abandon the scientific and theoretical study of international relations. Their study presupposes the obligatory application of theory, observations, mathematical calculations and other rigorous methods. At the same time, comprehension of international relations is not only a rigorous science, but also an art, and therefore implies the obligatory "inclusion" of such qualities of a researcher as intuition and imagination, the ability to perceive paradoxes and find analogies, even to use irony.

Thus, the term "TMO", not having a general distribution, is still preserved, but in an updated meaning. Even those who believe that there are few grounds for asserting the existence of its object as a material, physical reality, believe that TMT has its own subject, it is understood as a set of problems, the essence of which, with all the diversity of the interconnected world, is not reduced to internal political processes , but has its own logic. From this point of view, the main task of the theory is to express this essence. In view of what has been said, TMT should be understood as the totality of existing knowledge, achieved and developed within the framework of competing paradigms. Such an understanding presupposes not only a critical, but also an attentive, constructive attitude towards the results achieved in each of them, which should not be regarded as incomparable and negating each other.

The state plays a decisive role in identifying the TMT object. Not because it is a special actor, but because with the state comes the concept of "border" - an imaginary line separating "us" from "them". The boundary visibly shows the limits of international relations, due to the differences that exist between internal and external processes and stem from the inclusion of society in a wider social environment, regulated by rules different from internal ones. In addition to the border, there are broader concepts: "frontiers", "outpost", "frontier", "limits". The territorial sign of the power space is not the only one, and not even main feature political, because politics is not necessarily connected with the state. However, relations between a stateless society and the state are different than those that exist within each of them. Thus, the object of TMT is the boundary between "we" and "others".

The need to distinguish TIR understood in this way from private theories of international relations was expressed in the use of two more terms that are considered in the literature as identical in content: "international relations" and "science of international relations". At the same time, the defining feature of international relations (which will be discussed in more detail below) continues to be relations of authority, conflict and coordination of interests, values and goals, or, in other words, political relations, which determines the applicability of the term "international political science" to our discipline. .

Thus, international or global politics is the core of international relations.

World politics is the process of developing, adopting and implementing decisions that affect the life of the world community.

Global politics:

As a scientific direction, it arose in the second half of the 20th century, mainly within the framework of the neoliberal theoretical tradition.

Its origins go to the study of international organizations, international political and economic processes, political science (primarily comparative), theoretical studies of international relations.

Deals with the problems of the current state, as well as trends in the development of the world political system.

As participants in international interaction, he considers not only states (which he recognizes as the main actors) and intergovernmental organizations, but also non-state actors (non-governmental organizations, TNCs, intrastate regions, etc.)

Considers international problems in relation to each other and in a single global context.

Does not make a sharp contrast between domestic and foreign policy.

Criteria for international relations

Participant specifics. According to the famous French sociologist R. Aron, "international relations are relations between political units."

special nature. International relations are anarchic in nature and are characterized by great uncertainty. As a result, each participant in the IR is forced to take steps based on the unpredictability of the behavior of other participants.

Localization criterion. According to the French researcher M. Merle, international relations are "a set of agreements and flows that cross borders, or tend to cross borders."

Criterion of reality. MO is an objective-subjective reality that depends on human consciousness.

History of TMO

The theory of international relations is one of the relatively young social science disciplines, although its origins date back to the socio-political thought of the distant and recent past. Since the subject area of the theory of international relations is the sphere of politics, this science belongs to the field of political knowledge, moreover, until recently it was considered as one of the sections of political science.

At the initial stage of development in modern political science, international issues were not given much attention. In the works of M. Weber, G. Mosca, V. Pareto and other classics of political science at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries. there is almost no discussion of the international relations of that period. This situation can be explained by the conditions in which the formation of political science took place.

In the middle of the XIX century. in the political development of leading countries Western Europe and North America there have been major shifts. Political systems of the modern type were formed there, which included, along with the state, political parties, various interest groups and other institutions that were new for that time. At the same time parliamentary democracy was established in these countries. The electoral process has acquired a regular and systematic character. The sphere of public policy has changed radically, and its subjects have formed a demand for such political knowledge that could not be obtained in the traditional way for philosophy or legal sciences. It was necessary to train personnel to serve the political process, to work in state and party structures. To meet these needs, a number of universities have created departments and institutes of political science.

However, unlike domestic policy, the formation of foreign policy continued in the same way, sharply limiting the number of subjects involved in decision-making. The need for a special analysis of international politics either at the end of the 19th century or at the beginning of the 20th century. was not felt.

The First World War changed the situation. Its course, results and results prompted the political and scientific community to the need for a careful study of international relations in order to avoid mistakes in the future, which would result in such a catastrophe. It is no coincidence that the term "theory of international relations" appeared immediately after the end of the First World War. This term was first used in 1919 at the University of Wales (Great Britain), where one of the new departments was called the Department of History and Theory of International Relations. However, despite the appearance of the term, the theory of international relations as an educational and scientific discipline did not really take shape in those years.

Naturally, wartime was not the best period for the development of the sciences, especially the social and humanitarian profile. But the end of the World War did not mean the onset of stability for many European states. As soon as the consequences of the war began to be overcome, the world economic crisis began. He was the cause of serious political shifts in European countries. If immediately after the end of the war, democratization processes unfolded in them, then authoritarian and totalitarian political regimes are established in a number of European countries. In the second half of the 1930s. only the northern European countries, Great Britain, France, and in Eastern Europe only Czechoslovakia could be classified as democratic.

Dictatorship is incompatible with the freedom of scientific creativity, especially in the humanities, and even more so in political science. The development of political science in Europe slowed down, and in some countries it was completely stopped, for example, in Germany and Italy. In the 1930s there was a mass migration of scientists of various profiles from European countries to the United States, among the emigrants were social scientists, including political scientists. Therefore, in the interwar period, the center of world political science moved to the United States, where favorable conditions remained for the development of political science.

The leading role in American political science of the interwar period was played by the scientists of the Chicago School - C. Merriam, G. Lasswell, G. Gosnell. An important merit of the representatives of the Chicago School was that, using the example of specific empirical studies, they substantiated the conclusion that it is necessary to use an interdisciplinary approach in political science, quantitative methods, and increase the organizational level. scientific work. The outbreak of World War II and the entry of the United States into it led to an increase in the role of American political science in the preparation and adoption of major political decisions on both domestic and international problems.

After the end of World War II, a specialized organization for culture and education, created within the UN system, UNESCO, carried out a number of activities to constitute political science as an internationally recognized scientific discipline. To this end, in 1948, an international political science colloquium was held in Paris, at which the content and structure of political science were determined. In particular, it was to include the following questions: 1) political theory (the theory of politics and the history of political ideas); 2) the theory of political institutions; 3) a section that studies the activities of parties, groups, public opinion; 4) the theory of international relations (the study of international politics, international organizations, international law. Since the 40s of the XX century, the theory of international relations has been developing in the general mainstream of political science. Organizational structures for teaching and research in the field of international politics have been formed in within the framework of institutes, faculties or other departments of the political science profile.Although the origins of the theory of international relations date back to the history of Western European political thought, it was constituted as an independent discipline in the United States, which predetermined the long-term dominance of the American school in this scientific community.Even the names of the main directions of the theory of international relations (idealism, realism, neoliberalism, neorealism) appeared on American soil and reflected American specifics Almost all the most authoritative specialists in the field of international relations theory: G. Morheptau, J. Rosenau, J. Mode Lsky, M. Kaplan, K. Deutsch, K. Waltz, R. Gilpin, R. Cohen, J. Nye and many others represent American political science. Gradually, the theory of international relations as a scientific and academic discipline became widespread in the countries of Western Europe and other regions.

In the Soviet Union, social sciences could exist only on the ideological and methodological basis of Marxism-Leninism. This concerned both their content and structure, which was supposed to reflect the structure of the Marxist doctrine itself, which had developed back in the 19th century. Therefore, the social sciences that emerged in a later period did not have an official status in the USSR, even if they were based on Marxism-Leninism. True, since the 1960s. the situation in Soviet social science was gradually changing. Activation of foreign policy Soviet Union as one of the two superpowers of the bipolar world required an intensive and, if possible, objective study of foreign countries and regions. For this purpose, new research centers with international topics were created in the system of the USSR Academy of Sciences: the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), the Institute of the USA and Canada, the Institute Latin America, Institute of the Far East, Institute of Africa, Institute of the International Labor Movement (now the Institute of Comparative Politics). Together with the previously existing ones: the Institute of Philosophy, the Institute of History, the Institute of State and Law, the Institute of Oriental Studies, they received a somewhat greater freedom of scientific research.

The Soviet public had the opportunity to get acquainted with the work of Western scientists, including political scientists. Studies by foreign authors began to arrive in major scientific libraries in Moscow and Leningrad.

Some liberalization of the spiritual life of Soviet society continued during the period later called "stagnation". Some Soviet scientists and publicists tried to give Russian social science a resemblance to world standards. In particular, F. Burlatsky sought official recognition of political science, although noting its "Marxist-Leninist" character. A group of IMEMO staff led by Academicians N. I. Inozemtsev and E. M. Primakov prepared a voluminous publication called The Theory of International Relations. It was possible to create research groups at IMEMO and other scientific institutions that were engaged in a theoretical analysis of international relations under the guise of the task of "exposing bourgeois ideology" or apologising for "Lenin's peace-loving policy of the CPSU." A training course "Fundamentals of the Theory of International Relations" was taught at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).

At the turn of the 1980-1990s. the situation has changed radically. However, the impact of the new situation in post-Soviet Russia on the development of the theory of international relations was contradictory. On the one hand, the ideological and political obstacles to its development have disappeared; on the other hand, the economic upheavals of the transition period have had a negative impact on the work of scientific and educational institutions. The collapse of the communist ideology created an ideological vacuum, which began to be filled with a variety of theories and concepts. Due to the urgency of the problems of Russia's foreign policy, its role and place in the modern world, various geopolitical concepts have gained particular popularity. At the same time, the main provisions of the theory of international relations remained little known even among the political elite and the political science community.

Only towards the end of the 1990s. interest in the theory of international relations began to grow. New scientific-theoretical and educational-methodical works on this issue have appeared. Today, many universities in Russia provide training in the specialties "Political Science", "Sociology", "International Relations", "Regional Studies", "Public Relations". The curricula of these specialties and areas include training courses in the theory of international relations.

Although the domestic school of the theory of international relations is very young by world standards, it faces the same problems that this science faces in the countries where it originated. One of these problems is determining the place of the theory of international relations in the structure modern sciences about society. Some Russian authors, following their Western colleagues, put forward the thesis that there has been a demarcation of the theory of international relations and political science. Moreover, an opinion is expressed about the existence of a separate science of international relations. On the one hand, ideas about the separation of the field of study of international relations from political science have an objective basis of an institutional nature. If in the 1950s Since international problems were developed within general political structures, in recent decades separate divisions have appeared that deal with the study of international politics. Today in the West, the training of political scientists and specialists in the field of international relations and diplomacy is often carried out separately, while in Russia it was accepted from the very beginning.

On the other hand, the training of specialists in the field of international relations has its own specifics, which consists in studying a large number of disciplines, for example foreign languages. In addition, in the modern world, international relations are by no means reduced to political relations, therefore, a specialist in this field is not always a political scientist. International relations have a complex internal structure and are studied not by a separate science, but by a whole set of scientific disciplines. The theory of international relations, as noted, was considered in this series as an integral part of political science. Can we talk about a fundamental change in this situation? In our opinion, only partly.

In recent years, new sections have appeared within the framework of political science, such as comparative political science, ethno-political science, eco-political science, etc. In addition to political science, other sciences about politics are developing: political philosophy, political sociology, political anthropology, political psychology, political history, political geography. The place of the theory of international relations is probably located between these relatively independent political sciences and one of the branches of political science, which it was at the time of its birth and in the early stages of its development. The process of transforming the theory of international relations into an independent science has not yet been completed.

Patterns of international relations

The problem of the regularities of international relations remains one of the least developed and most debatable in science. This is explained primarily by the very specifics of this sphere of social relations, where it is especially difficult to detect the repetition of certain events and processes, and where, therefore, the main features of regularities are their relative, probabilistic, unpredetermined nature. The main features of social laws that unite them with the laws of nature are the existence of strictly defined conditions under which their manifestation becomes inevitable, as well as the partial, approximate implementation of the conditions under which the law operates. Let us emphasize in this connection that the degree of this approximation in the sphere of international relations is so great that many researchers tend to talk not so much about laws and regularities as about the probability of the occurrence of certain events. But even when the existence of regularities is not questioned, there are disagreements about their content.

One of the main ideas on which the concept of the international system is based is the idea of the fundamental role of structure in the knowledge of its laws. The structure makes it possible to understand and predict the line of conduct on the world stage of states that have unequal weight in the system of international relations. Just as in the economy the state of the market is determined by the influence of several large firms (forming an oligopolistic structure), so the international political structure is determined by the influence of the great powers, the configuration of the balance of their forces. Shifts in the balance of these forces may change the structure of the international system, but the very nature of this system, which is based on the existence of a limited number of great powers with divergent interests, remains unchanged.

Thus, it is the state of the structure of the international system that is an indicator of its stability and variability, cooperation and conflict; it is in it that the laws of functioning and transformation of the system are expressed. That is why in the works devoted to the study of international systems, paramount attention is paid to the analysis of the state of this structure.

The universal patterns of Mo are expressed in the following provisions adopted in most TMTs:

1. The main actor of the Ministry of Defense is the state. The main forms of its activity are diplomacy and strategy. Recently, the ideas of transnationalists are gaining popularity, who believe that in modern conditions the role of the state is falling, while the role of other factors (TNCs, international governmental and non-governmental organizations) is increasing.

2. State policy exists in two dimensions - internal (domestic policy, which is the subject of political science) and external (foreign policy, which is the subject of international relations).

3. The basis of all international actions of states is rooted in their national interests (first of all, the desire of states to ensure security, sovereignty and survival).

4. International relations are the forceful interaction of states (balance of power), in which the most powerful powers have an advantage.

5. The balance of power can take many forms - unipolar, bipolar, tripolar, multipolar configuration

The universality of the laws of MO lies in the fact that:

 The action of universal international laws does not concern individual regions, but the entire world system as a whole.

 Patterns of MO are observed in the historical perspective, in the observed period and in the future.

 Laws of IR cover all participants of IR and all spheres of public relations.

The theory of international relations, as a discipline within the framework of social science, studies the world "order", that is, the totality of all institutions that determine the form of integration and interaction between many local communities.

The global system of international relations is a multi-level system of interconnected and mutually included communities, which has both a horizontal and a vertical dimension.

To understand the existing structure of the global social space, it is necessary in each specific case to study the model of integration of individuals into communities (networks), the structure of their identity, their perception of social boundaries and meanings, strategies for international, cross-border interaction of various factors.

Methods of studying international relations.

A significant place in the study of world politics and international relations belongs to the method of observation. First of all, we see and then evaluate the events taking place in the sphere of international politics. In recent years, experts have increasingly resorted to instrumental observation, which is carried out with the help of technical means. For example, the most important phenomena of international life, such as meetings of leaders of states, international conferences, the activities of international organizations, international conflicts, negotiations on their settlement, we can observe in recordings (on videotape), in television programs.

Important information about the foreign policy of states, about the motives for making foreign policy decisions can be obtained by studying the relevant documents. Method of studying documents plays the greatest role in the study of the history of international relations, but for the study of current, urgent problems of international politics, its use is limited. The fact is that information about foreign policy and international relations often belongs to the sphere of state secrets and documents containing such information are available to a limited circle of people.

In the 50-60s. 20th century within the framework of the modernist direction for the study of international relations, methodological approaches borrowed from other social sciences and humanities began to be widely used. In particular, cognitive mapping method was first tested in the framework of cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychologists study the features and dynamics of the formation of knowledge and ideas of a person about the world around him. Based on this, the behavior of the individual in various situations is explained and predicted. The basic concept in the methodology of cognitive mapping is a cognitive map, which is a graphic representation of the strategy of obtaining, processing and storing information contained in the human mind and forming the foundation of a person's ideas about his past, present and possible future. In research on international relations, cognitive mapping is used to determine how a particular leader sees a political problem and, therefore, what decisions he can make in a particular international situation. The disadvantage of cognitive mapping is the complexity of this method, so it is rarely used in practice.

The development of the system of international relations in the 19th century.

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MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. MATHEMATICAL AND APPLIED CALCULATIONS OF REPEATING THE REVOLUTIONARY POSSIBILITIES OF "COLOR SCENARIOS" IN THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES

International relations is an integral part of science, including diplomatic history, international law, the world economy, military strategy and many other disciplines that study various aspects of a single object for them. Of particular importance for her is the "theory of international relations", which, in this case, is understood as a set of multiple conceptual generalizations presented by theoretical schools arguing with each other and constituting the subject field of a relatively autonomous discipline. In this sense, the "theory of international relations" is both very old and very young. Already in ancient times, political philosophy and history raised questions about the causes of conflicts and wars, about the means and methods for achieving order and peace between peoples, about the rules for their interaction, etc. - and therefore it is old. But at the same time, it is also young - as a systematic study of observed phenomena, designed to identify the main determinants, explain behavior, reveal typical, recurring in the interaction of international factors. Tsygankov P.A. Theory of international relations: textbook / P.A. Tsygankov. - 2nd ed., corrected. and additional - M.: Gardariki, 2007. - 557 p.

The sphere of international relations is mobile and constantly changing. Now, in the period of world globalization, integration and, at the same time, regionalization, the number and diversity of participants in international relations has increased significantly. Transnational actors have appeared: intergovernmental organizations, transnational corporations, international non-governmental organizations, religious organizations and movements, domestic political regions, international criminal and terrorist organizations. As a result, international relations have become more complex, even more unpredictable, it has become more difficult to determine the true, real goals and interests of their participants, to develop a state strategy and formulate state interests. Therefore, at present it is important to be able to analyze and evaluate events in the field of international relations, to see the goals of their participants, and to set priorities. To do this, you need to study international relations. In the process of studying, study methods, their advantages and disadvantages play a significant role. Therefore, the topic is “Mathematical Methods in International Relations. Mathematical and applied calculations of the revolutionary possibilities of the “color scenario” in the Commonwealth of Independent States” is relevant and modern.

In this work, a prognostic method was applied, which largely helped to build a chain of logically complete conclusions from a study of the likelihood of a repeat of "color revolutions" in the CIS countries. Therefore, it is advisable to begin with the consideration and definition of the concept of this method.

In international relations, there are both relatively simple and more complex predictive methods. The first group can include such methods as, for example, conclusions by analogy, the method of simple extrapolation, the Delphi method, scenario building, etc. To the second - the analysis of determinants and variables, a systematic approach, modeling, analysis of chronological series (ARIMA), spectral analysis, computer simulation, etc. The Delphi method implies a systematic and controlled discussion of the problem by several experts. Experts submit their assessments of this or that international event to the central body, which conducts their generalization and systematization, after which it returns to the experts again. Being carried out several times, such an operation makes it possible to state more or less serious discrepancies in the indicated estimates. Taking into account the generalization carried out, the experts either amend their initial assessments, or strengthen their opinion and continue to insist on it. The study of the causes of discrepancies in expert assessments makes it possible to identify previously unnoticed aspects of the problem and fix attention on both the most (in case of coincidence of expert assessments) and the least (in case of discrepancy) probable consequences of the development of the analyzed problem or situation. In accordance with this, the final assessment and practical recommendations are developed. Scenario building - this method consists in building ideal (i.e. mental) models of the likely development of events. Based on the analysis of the current situation, hypotheses are put forward - which are simple assumptions and are not subject to any verification in this case - about its further evolution and consequences. At the first stage, the analysis and selection of the main factors determining, in the opinion of the researcher, the further development of the situation is carried out. The number of such factors should not be excessive (as a rule, no more than six elements are distinguished) in order to provide a holistic vision of the whole set of future options arising from them. At the second stage, they are put forward (based on a simple " common sense ”) hypotheses about the proposed phases of evolution of the selected factors over the next 10, 15 and 20 years. At the third stage, the selected factors are compared and, on their basis, a number of hypotheses (scenarios) corresponding to each of them are put forward and described in more or less detail. This takes into account the consequences of interactions between the identified factors and imaginary options for their development. Finally, in the fourth step, an attempt is made to create indicators of the relative probability of the scenarios described above, which are classified (quite arbitrarily) according to their degree of probability for this purpose.3. Khrustalev M.A. System modeling of international relations. Abstract for the degree of doctor of political sciences. - M., 1992, p. 8, 9. The concept of a system (system approach) is widely used by representatives of various theoretical trends and schools in the science of international relations. Its generally recognized advantage is that it makes it possible to present the object of study in its unity and integrity, and, therefore, contributing to finding correlations between interacting elements, helps to identify the "rules" of such interaction, or, in other words, the laws of the functioning of the international system. On the basis of a systematic approach, a number of authors distinguish international relations from international politics: if the constituent parts of international relations are represented by their participants (actors) and “factors” (“independent variables” or “resources”) that make up the “potential” of participants, then the elements of international politics are only actors. Modeling - the method is associated with the construction of artificial, ideal, imaginary objects, situations, which are systems, the elements and relationships of which correspond to the elements and relationships of real international phenomena and processes. Let us consider such a type of this method as - complex modeling. In the same place - the construction of a formalized theoretical model, which is a trinary synthesis of methodological (philosophical theory of consciousness), general scientific (general systems theory) and particular scientific (international relations theory) approaches. The construction is carried out in three stages. At the first stage, “pre-model tasks” are formulated, which are combined into two blocks: “evaluative” and “operational”. In this regard, such concepts as "situations" and "processes" (and their types), as well as the level of information, are analyzed. Based on them, a matrix is built, which is a kind of "map", designed to provide the researcher with the choice of an object, taking into account the level of information security.

As for the operational block, the main thing here is to single out the nature (type) of models (conceptual, theoretical and concrete) and their forms (verbal or content, formalized and quantified) on the basis of the “general-special-single” triad. The selected models are also presented in the form of a matrix, which is a theoretical model of modeling, reflecting its main stages (form), stages (character) and their relationship.

At the second stage we are talking about the construction of a meaningful conceptual model as the starting point for solving the general problem of the study. Based on two groups of concepts - "analytical" (essence-phenomenon, content-form, quantity-quality) and "synthetic" (matter, movement, space, time), presented in the form of a matrix, a "universal cognitive construction - configurator" is built, setting the general framework of the study. Further, on the basis of the selection of the above logical levels of study of any system, the noted concepts are subjected to reduction, as a result of which “analytical” (essential, content, structural, behavioral) and “synthetic” (substrate, dynamic, spatial and temporal) characteristics of the object are distinguished. Based on the “system oriented matrix configurator” structured in this way, the author traces specific features and some trends in the evolution of the system of international relations.

At the third stage, a more detailed analysis of the composition and internal structure of international relations is carried out, i.e. construction of its expanded model. Here, the composition and structure (elements, subsystems, connections, processes) are distinguished, as well as the “programs” of the system of international relations (interests, resources, goals, mode of action, balance of interests, balance of forces, relations). Interests, resources, goals, course of action are elements of the "program" of subsystems or elements. Resources, characterized as a "non-system-forming element", are subdivided by the author into resources of means (material-energy and information) and resources of conditions (space and time).

The "program of the system of international relations" is a derivative in relation to the "programs" of elements and subsystems. Its backbone element is the "correlation of interests" of various elements and subsystems with each other. The non-system-forming element is the concept of "balance of forces", which could be more accurately expressed by the term "balance of means" or "correlation of potentials". The third derived element of this "program" is the "relationship" understood by the author as a kind of evaluative representation of the system about itself and about the environment.

At the same time, it would be wrong to exaggerate the importance of the systems approach and modeling for science, to ignore them. weak sides and disadvantages. Paradoxical as it may seem, the main one is the fact that no model - even the most flawless in its logical foundations - gives confidence in the correctness of the conclusions drawn on its basis. This, however, is acknowledged by the author of the work discussed above, when he speaks of the impossibility of constructing an absolutely objective model of the system of international relations. We add that there is always a certain gap between the model constructed by this or that author and the actual sources of the conclusions that he formulates about the object under study. And the more abstract (that is, the more strictly logically justified) the model is, and also the more adequate to reality its author strives to make his conclusions, the wider the indicated gap. In other words, there is a serious suspicion that when formulating conclusions, the author relies not so much on the model construction he has built, but on the initial assumptions, the “building material” of this model, as well as on others not related to it, including “intuitive logical" methods. Hence the question, which is very unpleasant for “uncompromising” supporters of formal methods: could those (or similar) conclusions that appeared as a result of a model study be formulated without a model? A significant discrepancy between the novelty of such results and the efforts made by researchers on the basis of system modeling makes us think that an affirmative answer to this question looks very reasonable.

As for the systematic approach as a whole, its shortcomings are a continuation of its merits. Indeed, the advantages of the concept of "international system" are so obvious that it is used, with few exceptions, by representatives of all theoretical trends and schools in the science of international relations. However, as the French political scientist M. Girard rightly noted, few people know exactly what it really means. It continues to retain a more or less rigorous meaning for functionalists, structuralists, and systemists. For the rest, it is most often nothing more than a beautiful scientific epithet, convenient for decorating an ill-defined political object. As a result, this concept turned out to be oversaturated and devalued, which makes it difficult to use it creatively.

Agreeing with the negative assessment of the arbitrary interpretation of the concept of "system", we emphasize once again that this does not at all mean doubts about the fruitfulness of applying both the systematic approach and its specific incarnations - system theory and system analysis - to the study of international relations.

The role of prognostic methods of international relations can hardly be overestimated: after all, in the final analysis, both analysis and explanation of facts are needed not by themselves, but for the sake of making forecasts of the possible development of events in the future. In turn, forecasts are made in order to make an adequate international political decision. An important role in this is called upon to play an analysis of the decision-making process of a partner (or opponent).

Thus, in my work, an analysis was made of the possibility of repeating the “color scenario” in the CIS countries by constructing a tabular matrix, which, in turn, presents the criteria for situations in this moment in this CIS state. It should be noted that the score for assessing the situation criteria was 5, since in the countries of the former Soviet Union the tendency to compare according to the system above 5 points remains unchanged, in connection with which, the author proposed a 5-point scale, about 100 were proposed as evaluators. people, citizens of the CIS countries, who, according to the system of questioning and social survey, answered the proposed questions (criteria) on the Internet ( social networks: Facebook, Odnoklassniki, etc.).

The table shows 7 criteria that can most affect the likelihood of a repetition of revolutions in a given region: the weakness of the state, the weakness of law enforcement agencies, the split of the elites, the spread of anti-government utopia, external pressure, confrontational agitation and propaganda, and the activity of the masses. Members of the Commonwealth of Independent States are proposed on an individual basis, as well as on a regional basis, an average score is calculated most likely repeat.

As can be seen from the table, Ukraine has a score close to the maximum - 4, in which the situation with the problem of the weakness of the political system remains acute to this day, as a result of which the ideas of anti-government utopia are close to 4 points, which confirms the deplorable situation in this state. Speaking about external pressure, the participants of the social survey gave the maximum score - 5, which is a complete lack of self-determination, dependence on external influence and helplessness of this state from foreign interventions and infusions of financial investments by it. The split of the elites is also an important problem in this zone, since according to the schedule, 5 points were noted, i.e. at the moment, Ukraine is divided into several parts, the split elites dictate their ideas for conducting politics, which undoubtedly puts the state in one of the poorest countries in the world today. The average risk score for a repeat of the "color revolutions" was 4.

Further on consideration is the problem of our country - Kyrgyzstan, for which the survey participants determined the maximum score - 5 among all CIS countries, when compared with neighboring Tajikistan, our state has military-economic, political and economic weaknesses that prevent our country from being one step ahead neighboring republics. Despite the confrontational agitation and propaganda close to the minimum score - 2, the rest of the criteria are mostly close to - 4, it turns out that at the moment the situation after two revolutions did not give any lessons and the consequences were meaningless. The average probability score for the repetition of revolutions in our republic was 3.6.

However, for all the paradoxicality, the situation in Tajikistan remains not the best, when compared with the same Georgia, which also suffered two "color revolutions", Tajikistan has socio-economic, political weaknesses, a skyrocketing unemployment rate demoscope.ru/weekly /2015/0629/barom07.php in this country forces citizens to leave to work in Russia (including the problem of drug trafficking, criminal activities of extremist groups, the danger of religious extremism, clannishness). In Tajikistan, the average score was - 3, 4.

Turkmenistan is one of the "closed" countries of the former USSR, today it is in last place, the average score for repeating the "color scenario" of which was only 1.7. Whether this result says that the state is classified in its economic, political and military matters, or in fact, this state is one of the most prosperous at the present time, everyone decides for himself. Even comparing the same Uzbekistan (3 points) on foreign aid, Turkmenistan has 2 points, confirming that given country exists to the greatest extent “by itself”, providing its people and statehood with its own efforts. Thus, taking the last place in this list.

international color revolution state

The work will include a graph of the average repetition rate of "color revolutions" in the CIS countries on an individual basis, i.e. if the tabular matrix shows how the evaluation work was carried out according to certain criteria, then the graph allows you to see the whole situation of this problem, where there is the highest coefficient of repetition of the "color scenario", and where - the smallest. From which it follows that the highest probability of repetition (on an individual basis) in Ukraine is 4 points, and the lowest in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is about 2 points.

However, if Ukraine has the greatest danger of repeating revolutions (4 points), then by division into regional characteristics, the countries of the so-called Transcaucasus (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia) have the highest average score - 2.9, compared with Eastern Europe, which has 2.8 points, central Asia has - 2.7 points, which puts our region in last place in terms of the possibility of repeating the "color scenario", despite the difference of 0.1 points compared to other regions of the CIS.

The totality of economic (unemployment, low wage, low labor productivity, uncompetitiveness of the industry), social and medical (disability, old age, high level morbidity), demographic (single-parent families, a large number of dependents in the family), educational and qualification (low level of education, insufficient professional training), political (military conflicts, forced migration), regional-geographical (unequal development of regions), religious-philosophical and psychological (austerity as a way of life, foolishness) causes the countries of the Transcaucasus to take the first place in terms of the level of backwardness and poverty of the regions of the CIS countries, which certainly leads to the likelihood of a repetition of revolutionary situations in this region. Discontent civil society, despite the dictatorship of some states of the Central Asian region (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan), can spill out through careful external sponsorship and investment influences and specially trained youth opposition, despite excessive democracy, according to the author, in countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, the likelihood of a repeat revolutions is really high, since the consequences of the past “color revolutions” are not justified in any way and the results did not lead to any significant changes, except that only the “tops” of power changed.

Summing up, this section helped in many ways to reveal the essence of the topic “General and specific features of “color revolutions” in the CIS countries”, the method of applied and mathematical analysis carried out led to the conclusion that the likelihood of a repeat of “color revolutions” is not taken if measures are not taken to prevent these conflicts. situations and fundamentally change the issues of poverty in Eastern Europe, resolve conflicts at the interethnic level in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, and end the problem of clans and nepotism in Central Asia.

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annotation scientific article on political sciences, author of scientific work - Dzera M.M., Pasichny R.Ya.

International relationships as a sphere of human coexistence cover political, economic, diplomatic, cultural and other ties and relations between actors operating in the international arena. The presence of such a large number of subjects and the importance of their relationships are the reason for the need to analyze this area in order to determine the trends in their development and the mutual influence between them. For studying international relations most of the general scientific methods are used, however, they also use special methodological approaches, due to the fact that world political processes have their own specifics, differ from the political processes unfolding within individual states. An important place in the study of world politics and international relations belongs to the methods of instrumental observation, in particular content analysis, document analysis, a method of observing the reflection of political reality in the media. With the help of the above methods, it becomes possible to record and observe an event, followed by evaluation and establishment of cause-and-effect relationships.

The text of the scientific work on the topic "Modern methods of research in international relations"

Scientific vknik LNUVMBT iMeHi S.Z. Gzhytsky, 2017, vol. 19, no. 76

HayKoBHH BiCHUK ^BBiBctKoro HanjoHantHoro ymBepcureTy BeTepHHapHoi MegunuHH Ta 6ioTexHonoriH iMeHi C.3. IxuntKoro Scientific Messenger of Lviv National University of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnologies named after S.Z. Gzhytskyj

ISSN 2519-2701 print ISSN 2518-1327 online

http://nvlvet.com.ua/

Modern Methods of Doslovdzhen International Vidnosin

MM. Dzera1, R.Ya. Easter2 [email protected]

1Lviv National University of Veterinary Medicine and By-Technology named after S.Z. Gzhytsky,

vul. Pekarska, 50, m. Lviv, 79010, Ukraine;

2Lviv National University "Lviv Polytechnic" st. Stepana Banderi, 12, Lviv, 79013, Decoration

M1zhnarodt vgdnosini as the sphere of human svgnuvannya spit on politicht, ekonomgchng, diplomacy, cultural and tsh sv "language of mutually gdennosiny blue actors, yat on the international aret. spheres with the method of designating the trend of 1x rose-coil and mutually with them.

For the development of international vgdnosin, you should put in place the most important scientific methods, testify against them at once with special methods of methodology, go ahead, zoom in on them, so you can process your own specifics, vgdrg-take in the process of political powers, churn up in the frames. It is important to use the methods of instrumental caution, content analysis, analysis of documents, and the method of guarding in political dshsnostg in mas-medga. Behind the help of higher-value methods in a flock of possible fgksatsgyat, go ahead, for further estimating and establishing causal-native links.

Keywords: mgzhnarodng vgdnosini, political analysis, forecasting, content analysis, document analysis, tterp-dropping.

Modern methods of research in international relations

MM. Dzera1, R.Ya. Pasichny2 [email protected]

1 Lviv National University Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology named after S.Z. Gzhitsky,

st. Pekarskaya, 50, Lvov, 79010, Ukraine;

2Lviv National University "Lviv Polytechnic", st. Stepana Bandera, 12, Lviv, 79013, Ukraine

International relations as a sphere of human coexistence cover political, economic, diplomatic, cultural and other ties and relations between actors operating in the international arena. The presence of such a large number of subjects and the importance of their relationships are the reason for the need to analyze this area in order to determine the trends in their development and the mutual influence between them.

Most of the general scientific methods are used to study international relations, however, they also use special methodological approaches, due to the fact that world political processes have their own specifics, differ from the political processes unfolding within individual states. An important place in the study of world politics and international relations belongs to the methods of instrumental observation, in particular content analysis, document analysis, the method of observing the reflection of political reality in the media. With the help of the above methods, it becomes possible to record and observe an event, followed by evaluation and establishment of cause-and-effect relationships.

Key words: international relations, political analysis, forecasting, content analysis, document analysis, interpretation.

Dzera, M.M., Pasichnyy, R.Y. (2017). Modern research methods International Relations. Scientific Messenger LNUVMBT named after S.Z. Gzhytskyj, 19(76), 144-146.

HayKoBHH BicHHK .HHyBMET iMeHi C.3. iKHibKoro, 2017, t 19, no. 76

Modern research methods

M.M. Dzera1, R.Y. Pasichnyy2 [email protected]

1Lviv National University of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnologies named after S.Z. Gzhytskyi,

Pekarska Str., 50, Lviv, 79010, Ukraine;

2Lviv National Polytechnic University "Lviv Polytechnic", Stepan Bandera Str., 12, Lviv 79013, Ukraine

To study international relations most used scientific methods, but both of them and use special methodological approaches, due to the fact that world political processes have their own specifics are different from political processes unfolding within individual states. An important role in the study of world politics and international relations belongs to instrumental observation techniques, including content analysis, document analysis, observation method reflected the political reality in the media. Using the above named methods becomes possible fixing and monitoring developments with further evaluation and establishing causation.

Select individual research methods in the analysis of international relations, determined by the characteristics of the task, so with the aim of research training public perception ofpowerful solutions in the political arena, pay attention to methods such as analysis of documents and their content, method of illumination and interpretation in the media.

Political analysis involves a systematic assessment of political reality and viability of alternative policies, which tend to have a form of political documents.

The study of relevant documents gives researchers important information about the foreign policy of countries and their development trends, the reasons for acceptance of foreign policy decisions in a given international situation. However, study of topical international problems, this method has several disadvantages. As part of the documents may be closed nature, due to the state secret, a researcher operating with only open sources and not having all the information about the scenario of the international situation, can make the wrong conclusion.

Key words: international relations, political analysis, forecasting, content analysis, document analysis, interpretation.

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Popova, O.V. (2011). Politicheskij analiz i prognoziro-

Improvement of computer technology, further development of the mathematical apparatus increases the range of

E. G. Baranovsky, N. N., Vladislavleva
changes in precise methods in humanities including in international relations. The use of mathematical methods in the conduct of political research makes it possible to expand the traditional methods of qualitative analysis and improve the accuracy of predictive estimates. International relations are the sphere social activities with a huge number of factors, events and relationships of the most diverse nature, therefore, on the one hand, this area of knowledge is very difficult to formalize, but on the other hand, for a complete and systematic analysis, it is necessary to introduce common concepts and a certain unified language: “Politics dealing with problems of fantastic complexity , needs a common language... There is a need for a consistent and universal logic and precise methods for assessing the impact of a particular policy on achieving the goals. You need to learn to visualize complex structures clearly in order to make the right decisions. .
Mathematical tools used today in the study of international relations, in the vast majority of cases, were borrowed from the related social sciences, which in turn drew them from the natural sciences. It is customary to single out the following types of mathematical tools: 1) means of mathematical statistics; 2) apparatus of algebraic and differential equations; 3) game theory, computer simulation, information and logic systems, "non-quantitative sections" of mathematics.
Mathematical approaches in the analysis of international relations are used in two ways - to solve tactical (local) issues and to analyze strategic (global) problems. Mathematics also acts as a useful tool for building a model of international relations of various levels of complexity. At the same time, it should be taken into account that “the use of quantitative methods in the social sciences is based on the creation of such models, which in their essence depend not so much on the absolute values of the numbers, but on their order. Such models are not designed to obtain numerical
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Chapter IV
results, but rather to answer questions about whether or not some property, for example, stability, takes place.
When constructing formalized models and applying mathematical methods, the following conditions must be taken into account.
1) Conceptual models should allow formalizing the existing information array into quantitatively measurable indicators. 2) When constructing forecasts based on the use of formalized methods, it should be taken into account that they are able to calculate a limited number of options in strictly defined areas of application.
The main steps in building a formal model include:
1. Development of hypotheses and development of a system of categories.
2. The choice of methods for obtaining conclusions and the logic of transforming theoretical knowledge into practical consequences.
3. Choice of mathematical display, adequately applied theory.
It should be noted that the problems that arise when constructing a system of hypotheses and categories are the most difficult to resolve. A hypothesis should be such a theoretical construction that, on the one hand, would adequately reflect the qualitative aspects of the object of study, and on the other hand, would provide for the division of the object into formalizable and measured units or isolating a system of indicators that adequately reflect the state of the object and the changes that occur in it.
There are also special requirements for the categories used in the formalization process. They must correspond not only to theoretical approaches and a system of hypotheses, but also to the criteria of mathematical clarity, that is, to be operational. The best option seems to be the construction of a categorical apparatus according to the “pyramid” principle, so that the content of the most generalized categories is gradually revealed by categories covering specific phenomena, and would be reduced to categories that go to quantitatively measurable indicators.

Methods for analyzing international conflicts
The formalization of political science categories and a system of hypotheses, the construction of a model of a conflict situation and a process on this basis suggest that within the framework of a formal description it is necessary to state the largest possible number of ideas in the most capacious form. At this stage, the important points are the generalization and simplification of international processes and phenomena. The greatest difficulty is the translation of qualitative categories into a quantitative (measurable) form, which essentially boils down to assessing the significance of each category ... For this, the scaling method is used.
The mathematical tools used in the field of applied analysis of international relations include the following methods.
I. Extrapolation. The technique is an extrapolation of events and phenomena of the past for the future period, for which data is collected in accordance with selected indicators for certain time intervals. As a rule, extrapolation is done only in relation to small time intervals in the future, since the probability of error increases significantly with a longer period. This is called the forecast lead depth. To determine it, you can use the dimensionless indicator of the depth (range) of forecasting proposed by V. Belokon: ? =?t/tx, ?t absolute lead time; tX is the value of the evolutionary nickname of the predicted object. Formalized methods are effective, if the magnitude of the lead time? " one.
The basis of extrapolation methods is the study of time series, which are time-ordered sets of measurements of certain characteristics of the object or process under study. The time series can be represented in the following form:
уt = Xt + ?t where
Xt is a deterministic non-random component of the process; 136

Chapter IV
international conflicts
?t - stochastic random component of the process.
If the deterministic component (trend) хt characterizes the existing dynamics of the development of the process as a whole, then the stochastic component еt reflects random fluctuations or noises of the process. Both components of the process are determined by some functional mechanism that characterizes their behavior in time. The task of forecasting is to determine the type of extrapolating functions хt, еt based on the initial empirical data. To estimate the parameters of the selected extrapolation function, the least squares method, the exponential smoothing method, the probabilistic modeling method, and the adaptive smoothing method are used.
2. Correlation and regression analysis. This method allows you to identify the presence or absence of relationships between variables, as well as to determine the nature of such relationships, that is, to find out what is the cause (independent variable) and what is the effect (dependent variable).
For the linear case, the multiple regression model is written as:
Y = X x? + ?, where
Y - vector of function values (dependent variable); X - vector of values of independent variables;
? - vector of coefficient values;
? is the vector of random errors.
3. Factor analysis. A systematic approach to forecasting complex objects means taking into account as much as possible the totality of variables that characterize the object and the relationships between them. Factor analysis makes it possible to make such an account and at the same time reduce the dimension of system studies. The main idea of the method is that variables (indicators) that are closely correlated with each other indicate the same reason. Among the available indicators, their groups are found that have a high level (value) of correlation, and on their basis the so-called complex variables are created, which are combined by

N, G. Baranovsky, N. N. Vladislavleva
Methods of analysis of international conflicts
correlation coefficient. On the basis of indicators,
factors.
1. Spectral analysis. This method allows you to accurately describe processes whose dynamics contain oscillatory or harmonic components. The process under study can be represented as:
х(t) = х1(t) + х2(t) + х3(t) + ?(t), where
х1(t) - secular level;
x2(t) - seasonal fluctuations with a twelve-month period; х3(t) - fluctuations with a period greater than the seasonal ones, but shorter than those of the corresponding secular level fluctuations;
?(t) - random fluctuations with a wide range of periods, but with a small intensity.
Spectral analysis makes it possible to identify the main vibrations in complex structures and calculate the frequency and duration of the phase. The basis of the method is the selection of the structure of the oscillatory process and the construction of a graph of sinusoidal oscillations. To do this, chronological data is collected, an equation of oscillation is compiled, cycles are calculated, on the basis of which graphs are built.
5. Game theory. One of the main methods for analyzing conflict situations is game theory, which was initiated by the work of von Neumann in the 1920s and 1940s. After a period of rapid prosperity and an excessive abundance of research from the 50s to the early 70s, a noticeable decline occurred in the development of game theory. Part of the disappointment in game theory is due to the fact that, despite the many mathematical results, and proven theorems, the researchers failed to make significant progress in solving the problem that they set for themselves: to create a model of human behavior in society and learn how to predict the possible outcomes of conflict situations. However, the efforts expended were not in vain. It turned out that of the concepts developed in game theory, they are very convenient for describing all kinds of problems that arise in the study of conflict situations.

Chapter IV
Techniques for building and analyzing models
international conflicts
Game theory allows you to: structure the problem, present it in a foreseeable form, find areas of quantitative assessments, orderings, preferences and uncertainty, identify dominant strategies, if they exist; fully solve the problems that are described by stochastic models: identify the possibility of reaching an agreement and explore the behavior of systems capable of agreement (cooperation), that is, the interaction area near the saddle point, equilibrium point or Pareto agreement. However, many questions remain behind the possibilities provided by game theory. Game theory proceeds from the principle of average risk, which is far from always true for the behavior of participants in a real conflict. Game theory does not take into account the presence of random variables that describe the behavior of the conflicting parties, does not provide a quantitative description of the structural components of the conflict situation, does not take into account the degree of awareness of the parties, the ability of the parties to quickly change goals, etc. However, this does not detract from the advantages that the application of game theory gives to problem solving at certain stages of the conflict. It should be noted that there are two ways to study conflicts systematically: possible character interactions of the conflicting parties, causes of the conflict, mechanisms, course, outcomes, etc. Such models turn out to be large-scale, requiring large computing resources, but at the same time they give a multifaceted, fairly reliable result. 2. Assume that the parties, the causes and nature of the conflict are known, highlight the main factors, build simple calculation models to assess the weight of the a priori factor and the results of the conflict. The path is rather narrow, but economical and operational, giving concrete results for the parameters of interest in a short period of time. Both methods are used depending on the nature of the research objectives. For strategic research aimed at identifying

E. G. Baranovsky, N. N. Vladislavleva
Methods for analyzing international conflicts
potential conflicts, influence on the entire system of international relations, the formation of a long-term strategy for the behavior of the state in relation to a possible conflict situation, the degree of influence directly on the interests of the state, etc., of course, the first method of organizing research is preferable. To solve short-term tasks of a tactical nature, the second of the described methods is used.
In addition to such a division, it is proposed to consider the use of various mathematical methods depending on the stage of the conflict and the set of specific structural components of the conflict situation or process that need to be assessed. For example, in order to develop and describe a strategy for the behavior of a particular participant at a stage when the conflict has not yet escalated into an armed phase and there is an opportunity to negotiate a mutually acceptable agreement, it is proposed to consider the possibility of using game theory. Within the framework of the theory of cooperative agreements, the issue of sustainability will be considered. An agreement has already been reached, which is an important point in post-conflict settlement. To assess the "acceptable damage" and "pain threshold" we will use quantitative analysis. As mentioned earlier, one of the most important structural components of a conflict situation is potential, in particular, an indicator of the intensity of the conflict. To construct a tension curve, it is proposed to use factor analysis, methods of mathematical statistics and probability theory. Let's take a closer look at the proposed methods.
The resolution of this or that conflict means the achievement of a mutually acceptable agreement between the parties to the conflict. Politicians instinctively choose the best among the worst outcomes as the starting point from which they begin to develop a cooperative position. The minimax principle, game theory and the procedure for coordinating the interests of the parties in cooperative games formalize this practice.
Negotiations and agreement on the positions of the parties contribute to the achievement of compromises, which may be the desired solution to the conflict. At the same time, the parties involved in the conflict

Chapter IV
Methods for building and analyzing models of international conflicts
may use a variety of basic behavioral strategies. By forming alliances with each other, blocs of states can improve their negotiating positions and secure a greater degree of cooperation from their partners. Sophisticated methods of using threats, sanctions and even the use of force are used by states to force other states to cooperate with them. The threat of non-cooperation may bring smaller benefits to both parties. A small state may convince a larger state to cooperate with it in such a way that each of them, acting together, will receive a greater gain. On the other hand, a larger state may impose cooperation on a smaller one, because the latter may be in dire need of the gains possible as a result of such cooperation.
Before proceeding to a formalized presentation of the basic concepts of game theory, it is necessary to dwell on two important conditions for the application of this method: the awareness of the participants about the situation and the formation of their goals. In game-theoretic modeling of conflict situations, it is usually assumed that the entire situation of the conflict is known to all participants, in any case, each participant clearly represents his interests, opportunities and goals. Of course, in real conditions, the refinement of ideas occurs right up to the very end of negotiations on the choice of a joint solution. However, the idealization adopted in game theory seems to be justified, at least as an initial stage of scientific analysis.
The process of forming the goals of the participants is most clearly described in the work of Yu.B. Germeier. .
Any solution can be represented as a result
striving to achieve some goal in the considered
process.
Any process from the point of view of making a decision or forming goals is quite adequately described by a finite set of some quantities (1
E. G. Baranovsky, N. N. Vladislavleva
Methods for analyzing international conflicts

3. The goal of the decision maker can be expressed in terms of
in the form of certain strivings for the values of Wi and only for them. In the general case, there may be several participants (n) in the process pursuing different goals.
4. Goals should be formulated as clearly as possible and not changed during the time of the process considered in the decision. The variability of the goal over time entails the impossibility of making clear rational decisions.
5. Goals can be set, inspired and educated.
6. The process of setting goals should be careful, clear and stable over time. Goals should be structurally simplified as the dimension of the process increases. To form goals; only the most general and rough characteristics of the change set XV should be used. To facilitate the process of forming goals, an orienting analysis of the methods of forming goals and a language for describing these methods are needed.
A well-defined goal can be expressed as
the desire to increase some single scalar efficiency criterion w0, defined as a function of only the vector W: w0 = Ф(W)
Basically, the following types of elementary methods for the formation of common criteria (convolution of criteria) are used in practice:

b) lexicographic convolution of the criteria, when the maximum of the criterion Wi is first searched, then on the set

a) the choice of one (for example, the first) as a single criterion when imposing restrictions of the form Wi > Аi (i>1) on the rest or, in general, only imposing restrictions Wi > Аi on all criteria. In the latter case, a single criterion can be
present in the form:

Chapter IV
Methods for building and analyzing models of international conflicts

criterion W2 is maximized, and so on. until all criteria are exhausted or at the next iteration the maximum is reached at a single point;
c) summation with weights or economic convolution:

where? i - some positive numbers, usually normalized by the condition

d) convolution of the minimum type (Germeier convolution):

Here, in principle, Wio is any constant, but it is most natural to take the minimum value of the i-th criterion as Wio, and the maximum (desirable) value as Wim.
Economic convolution is used if the deterioration in the value of one of the criteria can, in principle, be compensated by an improvement in the value of any other. In Germeierian convolution, the criteria are not interchangeable. When modeling conflict situations, the second method of convolution is more often used, since it is believed that it is impossible to negotiate if it is assumed that any increase in the risk of a conflict escalating into an armed stage can be offset by some other advantages.
sustainable agreements. Let us dwell on a systematic exposition of the main questions of the theory of cooperative agreements. We will adhere to the generally accepted idea of cooperation as a certain association of subjects (persons, organizations, countries) that satisfies three conditions: 1) all subjects participate in cooperation voluntarily; 2) all subjects can dispose of their resources at will; 3) it is beneficial for all subjects to participate in cooperation.

E. G. Baranovsky, N. N. Vladislavleva
Methods for analyzing international conflicts
Cooperative agreements (institutions of consent) are the basis of the modern theory of conflicts as a set of mathematical methods that make it possible to study those informal connections that arise between the participants in the conflict and help to find a solution to the conflict on the paths of building consent institutions.
Let there be n participants in the conflict, they are assigned numbers i= = 1, ... , n and they form a set N = (1, ... , n). All actions that participant number 1 can take to achieve his goals are limited by the set Xi. The elements xi of this set are usually called strategies. The complete set х = (х1, ... , хn) of strategies of all participants is called the outcome of the conflict situation.
In order to set the interests and aspirations of each participant, it is necessary to describe which of the possible outcomes of the conflict situation are most preferable for him, which are less. A very general and technically convenient way of such a description is related to the objective functions or payoff functions of the participants. Suppose that for each participant i(i = 1, ..., m) the function fi (x) = fi (x1, ..., xn) is given on the set of all possible outcomes, that is, the value of fi depends not only on own strategy xi. Outcome x is more preferable to participant i than outcome y if and only if fi(x) > fi(y). In the future, we will conditionally call the values of fi (x) the “gains” of the corresponding participants.
Let the participants in the conflict situation gather to jointly choose their strategies (in practice, these are political negotiations between the participants in the conflict). In principle, they can agree on the implementation of any outcome of the conflict. But since each participant strives for the highest possible value of his “winning” and cannot but take into account the similar desire of partners, some outcomes will certainly not be realized, and different versions of agreements have different degrees of “viability”.
Let one of the participants (participant 1) give up any relationship with partners altogether and decide to act independently.

Chapter IV
Methods for building and analyzing models of international conflicts
independently, If participant i chooses some strategy хi of his own, then the “payoff” he receives will, in any case, not be less than the minimum of the objective function fi (х) = fi (х1, ..., хn), for all possible values of variables x1 ... , xn, except for xi. Having chosen his strategy xi in such a way as to maximize this minimum, participant i will be able to count on winning

Therefore, the offer of a variant that barks participant i "win" less than the guaranteed result? i has no chance of getting his consent. Therefore, we will assume that only outcomes x satisfying the inequalities fi(x) > ?i are discussed as possible options for a joint decision; for all iєN. The set of such outcomes will be denoted by IR - the set of individually rational outcomes. Note that it is necessarily non-empty: if each participant applies his own guaranteeing strategy, then the outcome from the set IR is realized.
The question of the sustainability of a possible agreement is very important. The option under discussion may be advantageous when compared with a guaranteed result?i, but not advantageous when compared with a unilateral breach of the agreement.
Let the participants agree on a joint choice of some outcome x. For the stability of this agreement, it is necessary that the violation of it by any participant is not beneficial to the violator. If there are two participants (N = (1, 2)), then this condition is written as the fulfillment of two systems of inequalities:

for all y1єX1 , y2єX2, or as a fulfillment of the system of equations

145

E. G. Baranovsky, N. N. Vladislavleva
Methods for analyzing international conflicts
For an arbitrary number of participants, we introduce the notation
x ¦¦ yi - the outcome of the conflict, in which participant i applies the strategy yi, and all other participants use the strategy хj. Then the conditions for the stability of the agreement on choosing the outcome x = (x1, ..., xn) consist in the fulfillment of the inequalities fi(x) > fi (x II yi) for all i є N , yiєxi, or in the fulfillment of the equalities:

these conditions were first formulated by J. Nash in 1950. Outcomes that satisfy them are called Nash equilibrium, as well as equilibrium points or simply equilibria. The set of outcomes will be denoted by NE.
From the definition of equilibrium, it does not follow at all that equilibrium outcomes should exist at all. Indeed, it is not difficult to construct examples of conflict situations that do not have equilibrium outcomes at all. All that theory can offer to the participants in such situations is to expand the set of outcomes (that is, the set of collective strategies) either by finding unaccounted for strategic possibilities or by deliberately introducing additional possibilities. As general ways of such an expansion, one can point out that, firstly, taking into account the natural dynamics of a violation, which is beneficial from the point of view of short-term interests, may turn out to be disadvantageous if more remote consequences are taken into account; secondly, an increase in the mutual awareness of the participants - if the participants in the conflict manage to organize effective system mutual control, then a potential violator of the agreement will have to take into account the possibility of an unfavorable reaction of partners to his deviation from the strategy stipulated by the agreement, which will nullify the benefit from violating the agreement.
However, the existence of equilibrium outcomes does not mean that it will be easy for the participants to enter into a cooperative agreement. Consider an example called the Prisoner's Dilemma. Two participants have two strategies "peacefulness" and "aggressiveness". The preferences of the participants on the set of four outcomes are as follows. In the most

Chapter IV
Methods for building and analyzing models of international conflicts
the participant who has chosen the strategy of aggressiveness against a peaceful partner turns out to be in a better position. In second place is the outcome in which both participants are peaceful. Next comes the outcome in which both are aggressive, and, finally, the worst thing is to be peaceful, against an aggressive partner. Assigning conditional numerical values of the “payoff” functions to these outcomes, we obtain the following payoff matrix:
(5, 5) (0,10) (10,0) (1, 1).
As is customary in game theory, we assume that the strategies of participant 1 correspond to the rows of the matrix, the strategies of participant 2 correspond to columns (the first row (column) is a peaceful strategy, the second is aggressive), the first number in brackets is the “winning” of participant 1 in the corresponding outcome, the second is “winning » of participant 2. It is easy to check that it is more profitable for each participant to be aggressive for any partner’s strategy, therefore the only equilibrium outcome is the use of aggressive strategies by both participants, which gives each participant a “payoff” equal to 1. However, this approach is not very attractive for participants, because By applying strategies of peacefulness, they could both increase their "payoff". Thus, we see that the fulfillment of the Nash conditions is by no means the only requirement that it makes sense to impose on a potential agreement.
In order to formulate in a general way another natural requirement suggested by the considered example, let us imagine that in the general situation two versions of the agreement are discussed: to realize the outcome x and to realize the outcome y. Generally speaking, some participants benefit from outcome x, others
outcome at. If, however, it happens that the outcome x is more beneficial for someone than y, and the outcome y is not better for everyone than x, then there seems to be no point for the participants to agree on the implementation of outcome y. In this case, outcome x is said to be Pareto-dominant outcome y.

E. G. Baranovsky, N. N. Vladislavleva
Methods for the analysis of international conflicts
Conflict outcomes that are not dominated by any others, that is, cannot be rejected on the basis of these considerations, are called Pareto optimal or efficient. Let's give precise definition: the outcome x is Pareto optimal if and only if, for any outcome y, the inequality fi(y) > fi(x) for at least one i єN implies the existence of jєN for which fj(y) > fj(x). Indeed, the above condition means exactly that if there is a participant interested in discussing outcome y instead of outcome x, then there is a participant interested in the opposite. The set of Pareto-optimal outcomes will be denoted as RO.
In game theory, the set IR P RO, that is, the set of Pareto optimal individually rational outcomes, is usually called the negotiation set, as if assuming that with reasonable behavior of the participants, negotiations on a joint decision will end from this set.
Along with the advantages that mathematical methods provide, there are a number of difficulties that limit the possibilities of their application to the analysis of international conflicts. The first such difficulty is related to taking into account the human factor, which plays a significant role in the decision-making process. Possessing logical thinking, a person is also subject to the sphere of subconscious drives, emotions, passions that affect rational thinking which in the behavior of state and political leaders often makes decisions difficult to predict. Although theoretically a system or environment should impose restrictions on their deviations from the most rational choice, history shows that the role of a state leader often turns out to be decisive, while he himself, when making a decision, becomes immune to objective information, and acts on the basis of subjectively established, in largely intuitive, understanding the political process and the intentions of opponents and other actors.
Another difficulty is related to the fact that some processes seem to be random, stochastic, because at the time of the study their causes are invisible. If figuratively

Chapter IV
Techniques for building and analyzing models
international conflicts
compare a political song with a biological organism, then the reasons for this are like a virus that does not show activity for a long time due to the lack of favorable environmental conditions. In relation to international relations and conflicts, it is important not to lose sight of the historical aspect, since the origins of some of the processes observed by contemporaries are enshrined in national traditions, national consciousness.
Of course, mathematical models by themselves cannot answer the question of how to resolve existing contradictions, cannot become a panacea for all conflicts, but they greatly facilitate the management of conflict processes, reduce the level of resources expended, help choose the most optimal behavior strategy, which reduces the number of losses. , including human ones.
To date, applied modeling of international relations is being carried out in many institutions of industrialized countries. But, of course, the palm among them belongs to such centers as Stanford, Chicago, California universities, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the International Center for Peacekeeping in Canada.
In the next chapter, we will look at some examples of international conflict prayers.

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